Fantasy Fishing: Can Skeet overtake KVD?

How does that affect the playing field? Well, Barkley Lake is a lot farther away now, for one. Rick Clunn had a strong showing from there last year. Also, many anglers that made the long run to Paris last year to get away from the crowd will now have those spots covered up.

That said, Barkley Lake will likely become the wildcard, with anglers willing to make extremely long runs rewarded with lighter fish pressure, although "lighter" pressure on Kentucky Lake means spots will still be covered up with boats. Weekend tournaments and recreation pressure abound on the massive Tennessee River system and this weekend will be no different. The one helpful factor will be that the tournament runs from Wednesday through Saturday, helping reduce the weekend pressure anglers usually see on Saturday and Sunday.

The anglers that can manage pressured fish will find themselves near the top of the leaderboard. Last year, KVD prepared for boat traffic in advance, finding enough spots that he didn't have to go back to a ledge he fished the day before, knowing there would be other anglers all over them. His record makes KVD a sure-bet to do well again on Kentucky Lake. Throwing a deep crankbait and spinnerbait should produce once again and there is nobody better at doing those two things efficiently than VanDam.

Don't overlook Skeet Reese either, a mere five points behind KVD in the Toyota Tundra Bassmaster Angler of the Year race. He finished 28th there in 2008 and 4th in 2006 and is coming off an amazing final day at Lake Guntersville. Momentum is nothing to be scoffed at, and like his TTBAOY run in 2007, Skeet is ready to make a late-season charge and slam the door in KVD's face once again.

Kentucky Lake also features a treasure trove of bushes to fish, but under most circumstances when the Elite Series visits, the summertime main-lake fishing is too good to ignore and go shallow. Until a few weeks ago, the water was high and in the bushes, making shallow-water fishing the go-to technique for heavy stringers. Then, they dropped the lake four feet to normal summer levels, pulling most of the fish out with the water. Still, one has to wonder just how many fish are left for shallow-cover experts like Denny Brauer, Tommy Biffle and Dean Rojas.

With those juicy nuggets to keep in mind, here is who you should expect to do well in a variety of categories:

Big Money Picks:

Skeet Reese — After an incredible final-day performance on Guntersville where he was culling 5-pounders all day, Reese is on a roll. He's only five points behind KVD and has fared well on Kentucky Lake. I can't think of the last time someone approached the same fantasy value as KVD, except maybe at the beginning of the year, but Reese is set to do just that (24.0 to VanDam's 24.7). Things could even up in both races after this trip to the Land Between the Lakes.

Timmy Horton — Two fish on one crankbait. Enough said, right? This guy pushed KVD to the brink last year and is a contender in every tournament on the Tennessee River. Play him.

Kevin Wirth — Wirth will cost you just over 19 points to play him, but he should be worth it (no pun intended). He finished second here in 2006, just missing out of the victory after a heroic performance by Morizo "Big Mama" Shimizu. Wirth is comfortable fishing the ledges with a big jig and worm and should excel this week.

Bargain Pick:

Jami Fralick — Here's my dark horse pick. Unfortunately, according to the "Who Picked Whom" section of the fantasy page, he is also the dark horse pick of 17.9 percent of fantasy managers, so I guess I'm not really going out on a limb. Fralick's last two finishes on Kentucky Lake: an eight during the 2008 Central Open and 11th at the last Elite event there in 2008. At 15.8 points, there probably isn't a better bargain out there than Fralick.

Risky Picks:

Mark Menendez — Why is Menendez a risky pick when Kentucky and Barkley lakes are his home waters? The last two Elite Series events in his backyard have not been kind to Menendez and he has missed the top-50 cut both times. What's different this time is that he has been on a role this year and sits in eighth place in the TTBAOY race. That momentum could give him the confidence to pull out a big finish this week. You decide.

KVD Watch:

KVD missed the cut at Guntersville. Once again, KVD missed the cut at Guntersville. I find that hard to swallow and I found it even harder to part with the ten dollars that I owed Kyle Carter afterwards. Kentucky Lake is coming and KVD won't disappoint, I promise. He's a beast on this lake, the only thing I worry about is that launching in Paris will crowd those productive ledges he likes to fish. Usually, he takes into consideration all the spectators he will have around him, and he will need to do it again on this crowded week of fishing.

Think you know more than me? Fine, I would love to hear your thoughts. Humble me anytime on the Fantasy Fishing Message Board.